Under the global epidemic, these 5 major industries are most affected

On the back of the "gray rhino" comes the "black swan".

In 2020, the new crown pneumonia epidemic has become the first and probably the biggest black swan, whether for companies, individuals or countries, it brings a battle without smoke and mirrors.

In the long run,宣明會 the epidemic is just a wave in history that is bound to fade away with time, but in the short term, it is like a pulse that

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significantly impacts the rhythm of the economy.

Like the 10 industries we summarized, they either suffered a cold winter or a freezing point under the epidemic, and became the biggest group of "victims" in this black swan event.

01 Catering industry

As an important part of the service industry, the catering industry was particularly affected during the epidemic.

The Chinese New Year is supposed to be a golden period for the catering industry. Not only are various parties very hot, but the lucrative New Year's Eve dinner is also the main highlight for all the catering companies.

But this year the situation is very different, on the one hand, more and more people choose to cook for themselves, on the other hand, around the world has also宣明會 introduced the provisions of the closure of the restaurant enterprises, so the plan to point to the New Year's Eve dinner to earn a fortune into a bubble, and the original hot Spring Festival mini-peak also disappeared, the entire restaurant industry has been paralyzed.

In addition, most of the restaurant enterprises have already stocked a large number of ingredients, employees are also ready to prepare for the Spring Festival, the corresponding costs have been incurred, the sudden outbreak of the epidemic, so that the owners of the major restaurant enterprises were caught off guard and suffered heavy losses.

Restaurant industry veteran, the founder of Xibei Jia Guolong previously said bluntly: "The biggest pressure is still to feed people, more than 20,000 people, more than 10,000 people in the dormitory, more than 10,000 people at home. A month to pay salaries will be 156 million, if two months, three months that how much? If the time is short, we can't carry it for a long time."

In terms of data, according to a report from the Evergrande宣明會 Research Institute, the epidemic has caused a loss of about 500 billion yuan in retail sales to the restaurant industry within seven days of the Spring Festival alone, and the latest report released by the China Hotel Association also shows that even if the epidemic could be contained in March, the restaurant industry would lose more than 1.3 trillion yuan for the year.

This epidemic is a severe test for millions of Chinese catering companies and tens of millions of caterers.

02 Tourism industry

Compared to the restaurant industry, perhaps the tourism industry has suffered even worse losses.

The annual Spring Festival period is also a golden period for the tourism industry. According to the data released by the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, during the Spring Festival in 2019, the total number of people received by tourism nationwide was 415 million, achieving a tourism revenue of 513.9 billion yuan.

But this year's Spring Festival tourism industry is basically considered frozen, by the impact of the epidemic, the country's A-class scenic spots have basically been closed, the traditional peak season can be described as a grain, coupled with the call of recreational projects around the country, people have also suspended their travel plans one after another.

And tourism-related scenic services, hotel subcontracting, subcontracting airline tickets and other industries, also show a boom, a loss of the situation.

A sample survey of the hotel industry shows that during the Spring Festival, the occupancy rate of the country's major hotels fell by 80%, and the occupancy rate of some hotels was even less than 4%. The hotel and bed and breakfast business, which was not doing well, will also usher in a new reshuffle in 2020, I'm afraid.

In addition, because the tourism industry is a very sensitive industry to the environment, its impact cycle is significantly longer than that of food and beverage enterprises, even after the epidemic disappeared in a short period of time, people's enthusiasm for travel will still not be high, and the impact on tourism is expected to last at least six months.

17 years ago, the tourism industry broke the deadlock and became one of the first industries to recover from SARS.

03 Film industry

With the pneumonia epidemic, people also stopped all entertainment activities.

For the movie industry, the Spring Festival season is a good time to make profits every year, but this year, affected by the epidemic, theaters were forced to close, and the Spring Festival blockbusters such as "Tang Dynasty 3", "Lost Mom" and "Jiang Ziyang" were withdrawn, bringing a huge impact to both the film makers and theaters.

The biggest loss is the box office, according to Cat Eye Professional data, January 25, 2020, the first day of the Lunar New Year, the national movie box office harvest 1.81 million yuan, while last year's first day of the Lunar New Year box office was 1.458 billion yuan, the gap is extremely wide.

In addition, as a closed-loop industry, the impact suffered by the film industry is actually a hair-raising one, film and television projects stop, meaning longer production cycles and increased shooting costs, the number of film and television drama projects sharply declined transmission to the upstream affect the platform side of the inventory supply, and due to the reduction of new projects, but also directly to the investors, promotion and distribution companies and artists and the entire industry chain to bring different degrees of impact.

We do not know how long the epidemic will last, but we may have a glimpse of how long and how large an impact it will have on the film and television industry.

04 Transportation industry

Not going out has become a disaster for the transportation industry.

Right now, in order to avoid their own infection and reduce the probability of contact with the source of infection, strict controls have been imposed on the movement of people around the world. People are also reducing their travel and family visits, and there has been a significant drop in the flow of high-speed rail, waterway, highway and air transportation passengers across the country. In order to support the epidemic, several companies have implemented free ticket refunds, and all related companies have suffered losses.

From the publicly disclosed information, during the 10-day Spring Festival holiday (January 24 to February 2), a total of 190 million passengers are expected to be sent by railroads, roads, waterways and civil aviation nationwide, down nearly 73% compared to the same period last year; and during the first 24 days of the Spring Festival (January 10 to February 2), a total of 1.285 billion passengers are expected to be sent by railroads, roads, waterways and civil aviation nationwide, down 27.4%.

The transportation industry is essentially an industry that carries "human mobility". A decrease in demand for travel and the absence of human mobility means that the flow of money and goods is at a standstill in the short term, and one can imagine that even after the epidemic is under control, people's fear of disease will still lead to a reduction in similar behavior.

Previously, many places have implemented "quarantine" measures, and many cities with serious epidemics even directly "closed" the city, the impact of traffic is all-round, and everyone is in the middle of it. We expect the epidemic to be brought under control quickly, so that everything that is stagnant can flow again.

05 Real Estate Industry

On the evening of January 26, the China Real Estate Association issued an emergency call to its members and the whole industry to temporarily suspend sales activities at sales offices and resume them after the epidemic has passed.

The real estate industry is also feeling the unprecedented pressure after most provinces and cities across the country took measures such as closing sales offices to customers, halting construction sites, suspending land auctions and shutting down real estate agents.

According to the statistics of Centaline Property Research Center, from late January 2020, the turnover of most developers plummeted by 95% compared to the Spring Festival period in previous years. And according to Kerry monitoring, real estate sales data for the week before and after the Spring Festival was basically close to zero.

With the fermentation of the epidemic event, it is not surprising that conservative estimates of real estate development investment, sales, construction starts and completion in the first quarter will be affected.

In addition, the majority of home buyers will postpone their home purchase plans due to the epidemic, and the property market will be at a freezing point, which will directly affect the sales returns and cash flow of real estate companies. In the sales end of the sharp decline, the resulting capital pressure at the same time, real estate companies are also superimposed on the pressure of debt repayment, which is undoubtedly worse for those who were facing greater financial pressure on the enterprise.

The tightening of the financing end since the second half of 2019 has put greater pressure on the real estate industry's capital chain, and the uncertainty of late funding will be greatly increased for real estate companies that are still in the centralized repayment period.